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In which we discuss the 2012 Republican Primary


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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 01 2012 11:24 am Reply with quote Back to top

Well, at least Romney won Florida last night.
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Fighter_McWarrior
Title: Gun of Brixton
Joined: Jun 05 2011
Location: Down by the River
PostPosted: Feb 01 2012 11:48 am Reply with quote Back to top

It's only a matter of time, although it appears that now that he knows that he's going to lose, Gingrich is adopting a bit of a scorched earth policy. It'll be interesting to see how that pans out.
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justdrop
Title: Supreme Overlord
Joined: Jan 11 2012
Location: Philadelphia
PostPosted: Feb 01 2012 11:59 am Reply with quote Back to top

Fighter_McWarrior wrote:
It's only a matter of time, although it appears that now that he knows that he's going to lose, Gingrich is adopting a bit of a scorched earth policy. It'll be interesting to see how that pans out.

I'll put 10 on rehab again.


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"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."- Winston Churchill
 
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Klimbatize
2010 NES Champ
Title: 2011 Picnic/Death Champ
Joined: Mar 15 2010
Location: Las Vegas, NV
PostPosted: Feb 01 2012 02:31 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Fighter_McWarrior wrote:
It's only a matter of time...

It's not quite inevitable yet. Don't count Gingrich out. If he can get Santorum to drop out immediately then Gingrich would get the vast majority of his supporters. Polls show that both guys have high unfavorable rates, yet Gingrich supporters are more excited to vote for him; there are fewer Romney supporters who are "enthusiastic" about voting. That affects the amount of people who actually show up to vote.

The Republican electorate has been all over the place throughout this process; you never know who they'll like day to day. By Feb 7th we'll have five more states done. Then a whole three weeks before another primary; that's a lot of time for people to change their minds a dozen times.


Pretty much the greatest thread of all time: http://www.sydlexia.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=14789

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lavalarva
2011 SNES Champ
Joined: Dec 04 2006
PostPosted: Feb 01 2012 02:43 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Greg the White wrote:
I think if the Republican Party wasn't 90% self-centered swindlers, I could back more Canadian style of Conservative once in a while.

There's no Canadian style of Conservative IMO, I'm pretty sure they're very similar to the Republican Party, at least what it should be.

I don't like them much because their values tend to clash with mine, but they haven't really done much for me to complain about.
Everybody's too busy complaining about the government here to care about the rest of Canada anyway Razz
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Fighter_McWarrior
Title: Gun of Brixton
Joined: Jun 05 2011
Location: Down by the River
PostPosted: Feb 01 2012 02:43 pm Reply with quote Back to top

One of the biggest reasons I say that is that Gingrich draws a lot of his revival energy from debating. There isn't another debate until the 22nd of February and there are 5 contests between now and then. Nevada is almost surely Romney's, which is going to add to his momentum and with little money and no debate floor to stow him down, I don't know how Gingrich is going to get another bounce.
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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 01 2012 06:37 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Gingrich has been using scorched earth tactics ever since he lost Iowa.

Didn't realize there wasn't another debate for a while. That'll certainly help Romney keep the momentum, as long as he doesn't say anything else stupid that can sound bad out of context like he did this morning.
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Fighter_McWarrior
Title: Gun of Brixton
Joined: Jun 05 2011
Location: Down by the River
PostPosted: Feb 04 2012 12:24 am Reply with quote Back to top

Quote:
That'll certainly help Romney keep the momentum, as long as he doesn't say anything else stupid that can sound bad out of context like he did this morning.


The not caring about poor people? Yeah, but at least he said that to Republicans. If he'd said it during the general it might have gotten him in more trouble.

I'm willing to cut Mitt some slack because I understand what he was trying to say. It does, however, sort of demonstrate the larger problem that he doesn't know how to watch his mouth. Mitt just says stupid shit sometimes, and he'll really struggle with that in the general.

But hey, if unemployment keeps going down like it has the last 5 months, it probably won't matter what he does.
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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 04 2012 06:22 pm Reply with quote Back to top

True, true. Although those numbers are deceptive because 1.2 million people dropped out of the workforce and the labor force participation rate is now at an all time low of only 63%. You know things are bad when we're happy about 8.3 unemployment, when Obama's plan promised it would never go above 8% and that it would be at 6% by now. My underemployed friend who was on unemployment for two years before she was able to find her current, crappy job said she laughed when reading all the positive news stories yesterday. For this to be a normal recovery, we need 13 million more jobs than we currently have. It's simply a weak recovery fill of crappy McDonalds jobs, just like the early part of the recovery in the mid 00's. The manufacturing jobs have mostly disappeared the last 10 to 15 years...
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sidewaydriver
2010 SLF Tag Champ
Title: ( ͡� &#8
Joined: May 11 2008
PostPosted: Feb 04 2012 07:09 pm Reply with quote Back to top

It's clear what we have to do. We need to invade Canada, give all their jobs to Americans, and send them all to Mexico. Problem solved.

Sorry Fig.


Shake it, Quake it, Space Kaboom.
 
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Optimist With Doubts
Title: Titlating
Joined: Dec 17 2007
PostPosted: Feb 05 2012 09:18 pm Reply with quote Back to top

You can't have north america without AMERICA!


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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 07 2012 02:35 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Man, Romney's head to head stats with Obama have depreciated the past few days. Must be a function of that dumb gaffe he made and the superficially good economic numbers. Gas prices look to be going up soon with Spring on the horizon, that won't help Obama's numbers....Regardless, it a long way till November...
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Greg the White
Joined: Apr 09 2008
Location: Pennsylvania
PostPosted: Feb 07 2012 03:08 pm Reply with quote Back to top

sidewaydriver wrote:
It's clear what we have to do. We need to invade Canada, give all their jobs to Americans, and send them all to Mexico. Problem solved.

Sorry Fig.

Fig stays. We of The Appalachain Militia will take him as a conscript.


So here's to you Mrs. Robinson. People love you more- oh, nevermind.
 
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Fighter_McWarrior
Title: Gun of Brixton
Joined: Jun 05 2011
Location: Down by the River
PostPosted: Feb 07 2012 04:31 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Cattivo wrote:
Man, Romney's head to head stats with Obama have depreciated the past few days. Must be a function of that dumb gaffe he made and the superficially good economic numbers. Gas prices look to be going up soon with Spring on the horizon, that won't help Obama's numbers....Regardless, it a long way till November...


Try not to sound too excited about economic decline. I for one want the economy to recover because it's a good thing.

And the numbers aren't superficial. For the last 6 months, the economy has averaged 200,000 jobs created per month. There all kinds of factors like consumer confidence, improved retail numbers, an uptick in construction and increases in manufacturing jobs that all seem to point to a slow recovery. I won't credit Obama for that, but it's hard to deny that things are moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.
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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 07 2012 06:03 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Fighter_McWarrior wrote:
Try not to sound too excited about economic decline. I for one want the economy to recover because it's a good thing.

Sorry if it sounded that way. I certainly don't enjoy being gouged at the gas pump.

Fighter_McWarrior wrote:
And the numbers aren't superficial. For the last 6 months, the economy has averaged 200,000 jobs created per month.

If we want to fully get into the boom period that typically follows a recession, we need to be averaging 500-750K per month, which is extremely difficult even in a good economic environment. Slow is a good descriptor of this "recovery." I would also say "anemic."
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Fighter_McWarrior
Title: Gun of Brixton
Joined: Jun 05 2011
Location: Down by the River
PostPosted: Feb 07 2012 07:44 pm Reply with quote Back to top

If it were anemic, we wouldn't have seen a near 2% drop in unemployment since 2009, and a number of the recovering sectors of the economy (construction, retail, manufacturing) wouldn't be showing any signs of it at all. Like I said, it's slow and it's not what it should be. But I have no more faith that Mitt Romney will be able to fix it than Obama's been able to, and their narrative that Obama is a job destroyer is just patently unrealistic. It's a mess, and like most economic messes, it'll just have to sort itself out.

In other news, here's an internal memo from the Romney camp that pretty much spells out all the reasons that he's a veritable lock for the nomination.
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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 08 2012 11:29 am Reply with quote Back to top

There seems to be some problems with the way they calculate the unemployment rate. Even the CBO says the real rate is actually around 10%. As I said above, the latest drop in the unemployment rate was partly from the 1.2 million people that no longer "counted" in the way they calculate it because they "dropped out" of the workforce. I remember democrats saying that same thing from 2004 to 2007, but I dismissed it because we were under 5% unemployment then, showing at least that in spite of any weird calculations, we had employment as high as it can normally go. When it gets as big as 7 or 8% or higher though, it makes me wonder, as that stat is bad regardless.

Also, there's all the people that had to take jobs below their skill level and earning potential because of a lack of better jobs. I have several friends in that situation, and I'm in a similar situation where I can't find a better job now that I've decided I don't want to be involved in the legal field. Still, it's all better than being unemployed...

Ha, I wonder who leaked that memo. Thanks for linking to it, it was a good read. The media is really talking about Santorum's victories last night, but that memo spelled out well why it doesn't matter too much. Like they said on CNN last night, McCain lost plenty of states after winning Florida the last go around, and still easily won. Santorum & Gingrich simply don't have enough organization or money.

The only good thing about this though is that the Illinois primary might actually matter for once.
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Fighter_McWarrior
Title: Gun of Brixton
Joined: Jun 05 2011
Location: Down by the River
PostPosted: Feb 08 2012 12:59 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Quote:
Ha, I wonder who leaked that memo.


Probably the head honchos in the campaign. When you can tout odds like that, you want people to know about it, particularly coffers that can put money in your pocket. I found the point about March particularly interesting. There are too many states for relatively small organizations like the Santo and Gingrich campaigns to be able to compete effectively.

I'll admit that I was a bit surprised to see Santorum win Iowa. He seems to have a gift for caucusing. That said, it really didn't matter that much in the grand scheme of things.
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Syd Lexia
Site Admin
Title: Pop Culture Junkie
Joined: Jul 30 2005
Location: Wakefield, MA
PostPosted: Feb 08 2012 03:03 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Fighter_McWarrior wrote:
Try not to sound too excited about economic decline.

I, for one, am excited by ecomonic decline. As society continues to fall apart, a Dark Emperor shall arise to rule us all with great cruelty. As our reliance on technology necessarily falls as a result of widespread poverty, our world shall return to the Time of Sorcery, and our collective destiny will rely on the Great Crystals. Our inner magicks will awaken, and my true strength will be revealed. I will slay the Dark Emperor and bring about The Long Peace, which will last 30 years. Then a new evil will arise from the Forgotten Land past the Unending Desert. He will attempt to reawaken the power of technology, and it will be up to a new generation of heroes to stop him.
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Preng
Title: All right, that's cool!
Joined: Jan 11 2010
Location: Accounting Dept.
PostPosted: Feb 08 2012 04:03 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Syd Lexia wrote:
I, for one, am excited by ecomonic decline. As society continues to fall apart, a Dark Emperor shall arise to rule us all with great cruelty. As our reliance on technology necessarily falls as a result of widespread poverty, our world shall return to the Time of Sorcery, and our collective destiny will rely on the Great Crystals. Our inner magicks will awaken, and my true strength will be revealed. I will slay the Dark Emperor and bring about The Long Peace, which will last 30 years. Then a new evil will arise from the Forgotten Land past the Unending Desert. He will attempt to reawaken the power of technology, and it will be up to a new generation of heroes to stop him.

So, as someone who doesn't typically follow politics, I decide to visit this thread to educate myself on goings-on and see what the general consensus is. And now I am fucking hype.
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Methid Man
Title: Spawn of Billy Mays
Joined: Nov 23 2010
Location: Hackensack, NJ
PostPosted: Feb 08 2012 06:47 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Someone's been playing a little too much Crystalis.
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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 09 2012 10:58 am Reply with quote Back to top

Fighter_McWarrior wrote:
Probably the head honchos in the campaign. When you can tout odds like that, you want people to know about it, particularly coffers that can put money in your pocket.

Yeah, well said Fighter.

Fighter_McWarrior wrote:
I'll admit that I was a bit surprised to see Santorum win Iowa.

I guess the social conservative wing of the party just has its tenterhooks on the GOP vote out there unfortunately - even when economics are largely more important in this election.
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Fighter_McWarrior
Title: Gun of Brixton
Joined: Jun 05 2011
Location: Down by the River
PostPosted: Feb 09 2012 11:28 am Reply with quote Back to top

I actually meant to say Colorodo there, but your response seems to fit both.
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Kacen
Joined: Dec 18 2007
PostPosted: Feb 09 2012 11:36 am Reply with quote Back to top

Bring back the Federalist Party.
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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Feb 09 2012 04:01 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Yeah, I was sort of implying any and all states he's won anyway. Megaman
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